Every Contract develops its unexpected problems …
Chapter 3 Cut Once
You measure success by how much good you have done for others.
Zig Ziglar
PortalNet Liaison, Vancouver, Contract Day 44
Chen hadn’t had a lot of sleep lately. He was wide awake anyway. This was a Go/ No Go meeting to decide if they could get this done. He had his briefing ready to go up on the screen with him. The meeting itself was a mixed bag, some physical and some virtual. He took a few minutes to shut his eyes and meditate, centre himself for what was to come.
The Three Horsemen came up on the screen from San Francisco, and the meeting started.
Mister Jamie went first. He brought up the 3D model of the #3 drill site candidate. “This is the only drill site which is doable from an Operations standpoint. I don’t like it.”
He held up his hand, moving the cursor through the model. “The rock wall here is thin, and there are some fissures in the rock. You want us to drill deeper, down into this notch here so the mud flows down into it, which will take more time. We’re already behind schedule on this as is.”
Chen hit the icon to raise his hand, and unmuted his microphone. “The three sites I gave you are the only ones which are a safe distance from the gas pockets, so the shock wave from the device will not destabilise them enough to cause a significant methane release.”
Mister Jamie gave him his famous hard look, and Chen braced himself to look back without flinching.
Carl Volcker, the Point Negotiator, dealt himself in. “You’re saying there is going to be a methane release?”
Chen edited his answer before speaking, cutting out the qualifiers. Academic caution was not a virtue at this table. “Some, not much, and it will not be enough to have any climate effects. Methane is a very effective greenhouse gas, but a small release is not harmful, and it breaks down in the atmosphere. It happens on Earth all the time.”
“What’s the alternative?” Volcker pursued.
“Methane clathrate deposits remain stable when they are under pressure. If the rock wall fails and the mud slides down into the sea, it will do so top down. The pressure on the deposits will reduce past the stable limit, and the methane deposits will destabilize all at once. They will get an explosive gas release equal to approximately 15% of their total annual methane emissions from all sources, which will equate to a sudden rise in planetary temperature of three degrees, give or take.” Chen again edited out his doubts about his models, the limitations of the data on the planetary environment, and other factors. He was advising decision makers, and he would stand behind his work.
==Check this. Ideally, model it.==
“Hell of a big cow fart.” Volcker was looking sceptical. “What are the effects?”
“In broad, much worse than Earth’s. The three fold increase in methane levels on Earth happened over a period of centuries with the rise of industry, and much of the effect was offset by the fact that Earth was headed into an ice age. Tsunami is not, and their climate cycles are far more energetic, which means more vulnerable to disruption. If you suddenly goose the gas pedal on an engine running close to redline, the effects are far more pronounced.” Chen had carefully crafted that analogy for an audience of non-specialists.
Chen watched the reactions, and gave a small breath of relief at the brief nods of acceptance around the table.
Mister Jamie put the cursor back into the model. “The site is still marginal. The crew will have to work on this windswept pimple of of an island, barely above sea level. The drill path is complex.”
A thin red line appeared in the model, and he traced it with a cursor. “They will have to drill down, under this weak spot here, up and next to the rock wall to minimise the shock effect from the device. I don’t like the stability of the rock wall. It’s thinner, which is not a good thing. There is the risk of chimney effect propagating up to the surface, which would give a broad notch and a much faster rate of flow including surface layers, instead of the small controlled release we have Contracted for.”
Chen took a deep breath and sought for serenity, reminding himself once again that this was not an academic debate. “Those three sites are the best I could find. The operational risks, Mister Jamie, are your business and I am not qualified to comment on them.”
Chen got another hard look, but the equally famous temper was held under tight control. “Worst case, there is a significant methane release. What can be done to mitigate it?”
“Flare it off, burn it to carbon dioxide, as is done in the oil and gas industry. Carbon dioxide is still a greenhouse gas, but it is a much less effective one. The efficiency will not be perfect, of course.” Chen was relieved. He had seen this coming and modelled it.
Chen had the numbers at his fingertips, but he didn’t need them. Mister Jamie’s curt nod put paid on the issue, and he moved on to the next thing. “What is the best way to ignite it? We have a spare nuke, two of them in fact. We could detonate them as airbursts.”
I should have seen it coming. To the master of the hammer, all problems look like nails. I did consider the problem, at least. “It would work, but the methane release would be irregular and chaotic, and it might blow out again. A better solution would be multiple small continuous ignition sources above the belts. It does not take much of a spark to ignite a natural gas flame, and if the flame went out they would reignite it.”
Volcker’s habitual look of mild interest hardened. “I would have to sell that to the locals, and it would reduce our profit margin. No way can it be done with our resources on the surface. They would have to do it.”
Chen sought for serenity. The Way of Tao is a journey. “It is the best option, and again the alternative is worse. That I leave to your expertise, Mr. Volcker.”
“Go/ No Go.” Elroy Risk cut the debate short.
The calls went around the table, and to his own surprise he was included. A vote at a Go/No Go meeting on a Contract. There is a tale to tell at cocktail parties.
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