Most of what I write is set in the near future, which if it is to be plausible requires extrapolating from the present day. Many have done that, and for every hit there have been a lot of misses. Some of the misses are hilarious in retrospect, but they do underline the problems.
The most difficult part of prediction is the wild cards. The invention of the transistor and the integrated circuit chip have transformed our world in almost every aspect, from dating and mating to military operations.
This can, however, cut both ways. If your story needs a wild card, you can have it as long as you make an effort to keep it plausible.
I did that for the Master Blasters series, the arrival of the aliens gifting us with a key piece of knowledge, the means to make cheap plentiful superconductors, which along with a data package on plasma physics, enabled practical fusion power plants.
In retrospect, it was a bit of a stretch even with those advantages. I have seen quite a lot of media coverage of recent advances in fusion power. They all start with the obligatory mantra about unlimited cheap clean energy.
When I read these articles with a more skeptical eye, I’m not terribly impressed. The National Ignition Facility in the US used a building-sized laser array to fuse a tiny capsule of deuterium fuel, releasing a tiny fraction of the energy put into it.
ITER, in Europe, has just taken delivery of a magnet big enough to lift an aircraft carrier, which will be the centrepiece of the decades-long effort fuelled by many tens of billions of dollars contributed by many nations.
It will not be a practical power plant. All being well, which is not guaranteed, it will be a milestone on the road.
All these efforts concentrate on deuterium as being the easiest fuel to fuse. This is not a very clean reaction. A lot of the energy is released in the form of fast neutrons. The neutron is the greased pig of subatomic particles. It creates radioactive isotopes, which have to be disposed of like any other radioactive waste, and is hard to catch and shield against. Extracting the energy isn’t a cakewalk, either.
The pot of energy at the end of the fusion rainbow is the aneutronic reactions, such as proton lithium and proton-boron 11, which are much harder to ignite into a fusion reaction. These do live up to the clean energy hype. These reactions produce Even then, there will be a large investment required to build such plants.
In any future I build from here on, fusion won’t be a player as a game-changer, just another power source competing with the others.
Moving on to other aspects, some things will remain constant. Politics will be a noisy messy process which at best produces an equality of dissatisfaction. Agitators will demonstrate and politicians will apply Churchill’s maxim, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”
As we move out into the solar system, and I have faith that we will, the pioneers will increasingly tell Old Earth’s politicians and bureaucrats to take a hike. Lots of potential for conflict there.
Closer to home, Gerard O’Neill asked the question of his students, “Is Earth the best place for industry?” When they took an unbiased look at the numbers, the answer was a resounding “No!”
O’Neill predicted, correctly, that industry on Earth would be under strong and increasing pressure from environmentalists, regulators and lawyers. Sooner or later, and as at this post, sooner looks very likely, they’ll decide the numbers tell them that moving off Earth is just good business.
O’Neill took a very optimistic view of this process. Get that noisy smelly industry off Earth, and turn Earth into a garden. I agree with him, it’s a good idea and probably an inevitable one if our civilization is to survive and prosper.
As with duct tape and the Force, there is also a dark side to this process. Earth’s governments may not like the by-products of industry, but they like the employment and tax revenue just fine. When those dry up, there will be some painful and wrenching adjustments, as cities like Chicago have seen.
Brain drain will be another problem those goverments have to deal with. Money and opportunity attract brains and talent. When the magnet is off Earth, it will aggravate existing problems with an aging population and a creaking economy.
With all of these problems, I still count myself fortunate that I have lived to see the dawn of this new age, and I can write its stories.
Know, O prince, that in the years when the children of Earth first set foot on the road to the stars, there ensued an age undreamed of, an age of adventure, discovery and conflict among the great cities which basked in the warmth of the Sun … “
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