As a writer who collects planetary disasters for my Portal Authority series, I found another candidate Contract for Master Blasters. The Devil, as always, is in the details, so I’m taking a closer look to see whether this could be a good fit.
A recent study, A Global Environmental Crisis 42,000 Years Ago, published in the prestigious AAAS journal Science, builds on new and more precise dating of preserved tree rings to date more precisely the last magnetic field reversal. They’re using the chronology of tree rings from preserved logs, to give a better timeline to the data from radiocarbon dating. They have used this tighter timeline to correlate with the changes in climate in that era, building on measurements of the Earth’s magnetic field and measures of such indicators as the extinction of megafauna.
The magnetic field of Earth basically flipped about 42,000 years ago, for reasons which still are not well understood, though research into the exact mechanism by which the Earth’s core generates its magnetic field continues. The practical point as far as I’m concerned is that relying on the naturally occurring magnetic field to protect our planet puts us at the mercy of a poorly understood and unreliable natural mechanism, with a catastrophic failure mode.
The hunter gatherers of 42,000 years ago apparently went through some pretty tough times. Our high-tech globalized society would, according to multiple expert opinions, be hit much harder.
The picture they paint, as summarized in the article in SciTech Daily, qualifies as a planetary disaster. The data are somewhat Australia-centric, but the evidence of the effects is more global. To be sure, climate is a global phenomenon.
This is peer-reviewed science, published in a prestigious journal, so I am taking as read that the team which produced this report did their diligence and supported their conclusions with evidence.
Briefly, then, the effects are as follows:
- Increased radiation levels at Earth’s surface.
- Consequent damage to, or complete destruction of, the ozone layer, resulting in elevated UV levels at Earth’s surface.
- Ionization would have increased the severity and frequency of electrical storms.
- Possible increase in glacier coverage.
Researchers working in this area have tied together the following events as having occurred in this time-frame and plausibly tied to the physical effects of the magnetic field reversal.
- Mass extinctions of megafauna.
- Extinction of the Neanderthals.
- The retreat of humanity to caves, on the evidence of cave paintings dating back to this same era.
This is cool science, to be sure, but it also has relevance to the present day. Current measurements show the North Magnetic Pole has suddenly started moving at an unprecedented pace, headed for Siberia.
Perhaps it has simply decided to defect to Russia, but a more likely explanation is some disturbance in the Earth’s core, which may be the precursor event to another such field reversal, with all the bad effects which have been discussed above.
The worst case, which is the proper basis for planning against a disaster, is that such a reversal is going to happen soon, as in decades, and may very well last for centuries, with the magnetic field of Earth declining to zero in some periods of the event.
This is not the only planetary disaster of this type which could befall our little blue marble. As I have discussed elsewhere in this blog, a Carrington-class Coronal Mass Ejection could also do significant damage to our planetary infrastructure, and inflict some of the same damage.
Our world is often compared to a spaceship, upon which we all live. There is ample and convincing evidence that the shield of Spaceship Earth is old, unreliable and failing.
The crew of Spaceship Earth has just wakened to the pipe of Wakey-Wakey, and there is plenty of work to be done, as there is in any ship anywhere and anywhen. There is cleaning up to be done, watches to stand, and machinery to be repaired.
“Chief Engineer to the Captain’s Cabin.”
“Chief, the lookouts report storms on the horizon. I have read your report on the condition of the shield generator. Not satisfactory, not at all. Can it be repaired?”
“No, sir. The core is out of reach, the manufacturer is out of business and the manual has been lost.”
“Very well, then, we need a new one. See to it.”
Having left the Captain’s cabin and grumbled a few Scottish oaths, our Chief Engineer can then start totting up the resources for this job.
- Spacelift.
- Put out a contract requirement.
- SpaceX currently conducts routine launch operations.
- There are other companies in the game, as well.
- Superconducting magnets.
- Available. The record is 45.5 Tesla, as reported here
- Expertise in building satellites.
- Large sophisticated satellites are routinely built, launched and operated for decades, for a wide variety of purposes.
- Money.
- The United States alone has spent a trillion dollars, give or take, on trying to pacify the Middle East.
- The cost of the James Webb Telescope is ~$10 billion.
- The cost of the KH-11 series of military reconnaissance satellites has been estimated at $5 billion each, and 15 or more have been built and launched. Their lifespan is classified, but they have been built and operated since the 1970’s.
In reality, of course, Spaceship Earth does not have a single decisive Captain, but is run by a mind-boggling array of committees. Getting those committees to come to consensus on any problem is a protracted and iterative process.
From my own personal standpoint as a writer, however, you aren’t going to see this problem in the Portal Authority series. Our own rather modest level of capability is quite sufficient to deal with this problem, given only the political will. It just isn’t enough of a disaster.
In the real world, the common reaction of governments is to put off such problems to past the next election, and the next, and the next, until the crisis is serious enough that they have to act.
It would be nice if we could say to our descendants, “Yes, we foresaw this problem and we dealt with it. You’re welcome.”
In my experience, nice is in pretty short supply. I’d like to be wrong.
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